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The chances of America’s fight against Russia and China are estimated: “Pants will tear”

Will the US Survive a New Cold War on Two Fronts

Russia and China are two “headaches” of the collective West led by the United States. Having staged an unprecedented sanctions pressure on Moscow, the Western powers are trying with all their might to contain the growing power of Beijing. Increasingly, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, there are fears that East Asia could become a new “hot spot”. Is there anything in common between the events in Ukraine and the situation around Taiwan, says Yury Tavrovsky, head of the Russian Dream and Chinese Dream analytical center.

– I'm sure there is such a connection. From the point of view of strategy, from the point of view of the global world order, the West, led by the United States, is simultaneously attacking Russia and China. The Cold War that has been waged against us since 1946 and ended with the destruction of the Soviet Union did not end even after that. It was carried out especially intensively after 2007 and President Putin's famous speech at the Munich Security Conference. The Americans have since managed to build a new “front line”, relying mainly on NATO.

The “Western Front” took on a complete North-South look after the decision of Sweden and Finland to join the North Atlantic Alliance, and also due to the fact that Moldova began to move closer to Romania, a member of NATO. Well, the unfortunate Ukraine, which was not even accepted into NATO or the European Union, was appointed as the springboard for the main blow.

As for the “Eastern Front”, its creation began relatively recently. Although, of course, since the beginning of the century, the Americans have been wary of Chinese successes, and then – concern. And after 2018, when Donald Trump began to apply trade sanctions, the situation began to take on the outlines of first a trade war, and then a full-fledged Cold War. Look, July 2018 – the first trade sanctions. In parallel, there are attacks on high-tech Chinese companies (Huawei, ZTE), squeezing Chinese researchers out of American centers, problems for Chinese students in America. At the same time, something similar to the “color revolution” in Hong Kong is emerging. Then, the intensified pumping of weapons begins in Taiwan, the stimulation of separatist sentiments in the Taiwanese elite begins – now American officials are on a pilgrimage there (even the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, was going to Taipei).

I think that all this is interconnected . Two fronts of the Cold War have been created, which pose a serious threat both to our two countries (Russia and China) and to the entire world order.

– Indeed, it did not happen, but it could not happen. Washington's policy towards China under Biden has not changed at all, because there is an anti-Chinese consensus in the American elite, which is conditionally divided into Republicans and Democrats.

Complete unanimity! We see this in the way the Congress unanimously passes anti-Chinese resolutions. By the way more and more large-scale and high-quality military supplies are approved. So there is no difference between Republicans and Democrats. I am sure that after the next change of owners of the White House and the Republicans will return there, nothing will change on the Eastern Front.

This is an obvious question of supra-partisan, national interests: China is inexorably pushing the United States out of the position of world hegemon. And this position is not just prestigious, that the Americans sit on the “presidium” of all the most important world meetings. This is the right to print the dollar, this is the opportunity to dictate foreign policy, economic, financial rules. The question is not about the survival of the United States, but about maintaining the status quo – including a fairly high standard of living for the American population, which is maintained largely through the exploitation of the rest of the world.

The quite understandable desire to stay at the top of the global pyramid is quite understandable and it will not change. At the same time, Beijing's long-term strategy, which is called the “Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” will not change. It is believed that by about 2025, China's armed forces will be equal to the American ones, and by about 2035, the economic potentials of the two powers will also be equal. There is a powerful upward trend from the Chinese side. Americans are stalling, raging from impotence and trying to contain the Celestial Empire, taking into account their national interests.

The peculiarity of today's situation in the world lies in the fact that the national interests of Russia, China and America have clashed at the same time. The Americans are trying to counteract two rivals at once – both Russia and China. Here the question arises: “Won’t the pants tear?” Is America strong enough? We know from history how attempts to fight on two fronts ended. This also applies to Napoleon, who fought both the British and Russia. This applies to Hitler, who fought simultaneously with us and with the West. This also applies to the Japanese Emperor Hirohito, who first launched a war against China, and then attacked the Americans at Pearl Harbor and the British in Hong Kong and Singapore. To be honest, this also applies to the Soviet Union, which was forced to confront the West (in the person of NATO) and China, which created a real threat on our eastern borders. Yes, we overstrained ourselves, so to speak, “were torn pants.” I'm afraid that the Americans will not have a very pleasant economic end in the struggle on two fronts…

– You know, during the agony, the dying person often starts to twitch and touches everything around him. This is scary: the Americans will not calmly leave. They will give themselves a big wake.

– Indeed, the Chinese have developed a system of explaining that the situation with Taiwan is completely unrelated to the situation in Ukraine. I don't agree with this. The Chinese declare the conflict between mainland China and the “rebellious Taiwan Province” to be the internal affair of the Chinese people. “Lovely swear, only amuse.” At the same time, diplomats say that possible military actions against Taiwan will not be a violation of international law and an act of aggression against a sovereign state.

I believe that Beijing's position is based on fears of economic sanctions commensurate with those that have been brought down on Russia. After all, China is much more dependent on world trade than Russia. In Beijing, they hope that “in case of emergency” everything will cost the military assistance that Biden promised the Taiwanese during his recent Asian tour. What kind of help will it be? I think that American aircraft carrier groups will be advanced to the Chinese shores in the areas of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. They will cruise menacingly in international waters for a week or two. The Pentagon will begin to transmit intelligence data to the Taiwanese in a larger volume than now. But there will be no participation of the American army in the hostilities – just like now in Ukraine. Well, a powerful propaganda campaign will be launched all over the world that “the hearth of democracy is being trampled down”, etc.

In fact, there is a lot in common in the emergence of these pockets of separatism in Ukraine and Taiwan. In the book “Ukrainian Threats to Beijing” I drew attention to the concept that the Americans actively use, “Taiwanese identity” (Taiwanese identity). Just as they recently used the notion of “Hong Kong identity”. Before that, “Ukrainian identity” was invented. Remember, even Kuchma said that “Ukraine is not Russia.”

There is a very interesting escalation going on. First, “identity” or “specificity” is created: Attention is focused on differences within the same people. Indeed, Ukrainian borscht is different from Russian. The Ukrainian dialect “surzhik” is understandable to Russians and vice versa. And in Taiwan they don't speak the dialect they speak in Beijing, it's hard for them to understand each other. All these differences are real and interesting. But when one “identity” begins to be opposed to another, things change. Ukrainians and I are one people, just like the people of Taiwan and China are one people. But suddenly a confrontation arises, which soon turns into open enmity “Moskalyaku against Gilyak!”. This is what I see as a “Ukrainian threat to Beijing”: “Taiwanese identity” threatens to escalate into aggressive separatism, Taiwanese rulers will declare that they are no longer part of China.

In order to start a war in the Taiwan Strait , it is not even necessary for the Taiwanese to launch their missiles (and they have Yunfeng missiles, which, according to various sources, have a range of 1,500 to 2,000 km). It is enough for them to simply officially declare their sovereignty, about secession from China.

In Taiwan, we see the same thing as in Ukraine, where over thirty years we have created the idea of ​​”identity” and elevated it to ardent hostility towards Russia, towards the Russians, towards the Russian language. In Taiwan, too, they did not sit idly by and raised feelings against mainland China, in every possible way emphasizing the difference and superiority compared to mainland Chinese. In addition to the “Taiwanese identity” there was a crisis with the “Hong Kong identity” – they also used the “specialness” of the Hong Kong people and a sense of superiority over other Chinese to stage an attempted color revolution.

I believe that the creation of “identities” is a very effective and dangerous tool that is used far beyond Eastern Europe and East Asia. Look at the situation in Central Asia, for example.

– Of course. The Americans have been using Taiwan as “Anti-China” since 1949. When the island's 6 million natives were joined by 2 million Kuomintang officials and soldiers, Taiwan became an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” against China. At the same time, the Korean War was going on, and American generals were discussing the possibility of revenge, the landing of troops on Chinese territory. The possibility of nuclear strikes against China using airfields in Taiwan was considered. Then, when relations between China and the United States improved, they began a “marriage of convenience” (from about 1979 until the Trump administration), the importance of the island decreased, and the security treaty with Taiwan was broken. But the American feeding of the Taiwanese military continued, and the supply of weapons continued. Taiwan has become an “alternate airfield” for the United States.

Since the arrival of Trump in the White House, when all the masks have been dropped, Taiwan is turning back into an “aircraft carrier”, and it is included in the “unsinkable aircraft carrier flotilla” created by the United States along the coast of China. Look: Japan with American bases, South Korea, the US-owned island of Guam with bases aimed at China, Australia. I'm not talking about the concept of the Indo-Pacific Basin, where the AUKUS military bloc has been created and the QUAD concept is being developed.

And Taiwan has a key role to play here. If you look at the map, you can see a chain of islands along the coast, which is very important from a military point of view, since not only American bases are approaching Chinese territory, but the ability of the PRC to enter the Pacific Ocean and threaten the United States itself is decreasing. So Taiwan will serve if, I hope, after all, not as a battlefield, but as a tangle of contradictions that will be resolved simultaneously by America and China.

– Beijing's activity in the region has a place to be – and this is natural. The potential of China is growing, the power of the Chinese Navy is growing. They want this de facto existing blockade. And they are making progress – not only on the diplomatic front, by intensifying their ties with the island states.

The other day, a Chinese flotilla consisting of the new Lhasa destroyer and three more warships sailed through the straits separating the Japanese islands and proceeded along the eastern coast of Japan. Moreover, they went through international waters, but near American bases. They passed Tokyo, in the vicinity of which the Yokosuka naval base and the Yokota air base are located. This is not the first such trip.

In October last year, Chinese and Russian ships in a single formation passed a similar route, demonstrating their readiness to interact already in the open ocean. And a week ago, our battle group of the Pacific Fleet followed approximately the same route. That is, we and the Chinese are showing that we are ready to cooperate in the Pacific Ocean and counteract attempts to pin us to the coast, to tie down the bases of our fleets. I think this process will continue and grow.

And here the United States will not be able to do anything, since the Chinese navy is developing at a pace almost three times faster than the American one. Recently, the third Chinese aircraft carrier was launched, more modern than the previous two. And the fourth aircraft carrier with a nuclear engine has already been laid down and will be able to make long-distance cruises.

The course of history is inexorable. As Chairman Mao Zedong said, “There's nothing to be done, the petals fall.” This President Biden could be written on the wall in beautiful hieroglyphs.

Источник www.mk.ru

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